Last week was one of the most volatile I’ve seen in 18 years as a professional investment manager. As of today, major indices have experienced significant declines: the S&P 500 is down 13.9% year-to-date, the Nasdaq has fallen 19.2%, the Russell 2000 is off 18.8%.
Following the election, optimism surged amid the belief that the new president would follow through with plans to pare back regulations that stifle businesses and extend the tax cuts passed in 2017.
One year ago, we commented, “Rate cuts that occur because the Fed ‘can,’ not because they ‘must,’ is the preferred path” for investors. It’s not that we have special insights when peering into the future. We have yet to find anyone who can consistently and accurately forecast peaks and valleys in the stock market.
2024 was a year of unexpectedly strong market performance. Major stock market indices generated historic gains with the S&P 500 returning 25.0% with dividends, the Nasdaq 29.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 15.0%.
Elections and politics are difficult topics. Give 10 people one political topic, and you will likely get at least 15 opinions…or more.
Last month, the bull market turned two years old. Since bottoming on October 12, 2022, the S&P 500 Index has advanced 60% through the last day of October, according to S&P 500 data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.