Mark on the Markets
October 2025

Fed Rate Cut What it Means for You

Last month, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate—the fed funds rate—by a quarter-percentage point to 4.00–4.25%. It is the first rate cut since last December.

Fed officials left the door open to one or two more rate cuts before the year is over.

The reduction in the fed funds rates surprised no one. Central bankers had telegraphed the move. So, why did the Fed cut last month?

While inflation remains somewhat elevated and is showing no signs of returning to its 2% annual target, the Fed is shifting its focus toward the soft labor market.

What is the Federal Reserve hoping to accomplish?

A wise person once told me, “Economics is common sense made difficult.” Funny, but true. Let’s clear the clouds and briefly touch on macroeconomic theory to help connect the dots between lower interest rates and faster economic growth.

In theory, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve lowers the cost of borrowing. If it’s cheaper to borrow and monthly payments are lower, consumers and businesses are more likely to borrow and spend. Notably, almost 70% of all economic activity is fueled by consumer spending, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Encourage spending, and you will support economic activity, offsetting any headwinds incurred by lower interest rates on money markets and CDs, according to economic theory. As the economy picks up, companies ramp up hiring to meet growing demand, leading to rising employment.

Lower Rates and Your Investments

All else equal, falling interest rates that are accompanied by an expanding economy have historically been favorable for stocks.

Without delving into a complex explanation about discounted cash flows, a drop in interest rates makes it less advantageous to hold cash, and that cash may find its way into stocks. If, however, the economy falters, a drop in corporate profits has historically outweighed any tailwind from rate cuts.

Data Dive

Since 1984, the Fed has cut rates 28 different times when the S&P 500 was within 3% of an all-time high, according to LPL Research. During the 21 times when a recession was avoided (rate cuts occurring at least six months prior to a recession), the S&P 500 advanced, on average, by 18% after one year. When a recession coincided with or closely followed a rate cut (seven instances), the S&P 500 posted an average 12-month decline of 2.7%, a stark contrast to the gains experienced when downturns were avoided.

Of course, this is simply a guide. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. But the historical data suggests the outlook is positive if a recession is avoided.

Investor’s Corner

As we've emphasized before, focus on what you can control. Interest rates, the economy, and market swings are beyond our reach. Your investment strategy is not. A well-crafted investment plan isn’t rigid. It’s a flexible blueprint that can be adjusted as life changes. It’s designed to guide you from where you are today to your financial destination. As your goals and life circumstances evolve, your plan should adapt accordingly. A review of the historical market data can spark interesting conversations.

It’s not unusual to spot patterns from time to time, but what has happened in the past does not necessarily foreshadow what will come to pass. There is no guaranteed outcome. In the end, market fundamentals or unexpected events can easily override any trends we spot in the data.

Mark on the Charts

The trend continues to upward. Last month, it began to flatten out. But that did not last long. There will always be ups and downs in the market. My job is to manage risks while capturing as much of the gains as possible. While technical analysis is not perfect, it’s important to have both a buy strategy and a sell strategy. And this is done with rules that have been back tested over previous market cycles. Perfect, no. Prudent, yes. As a Chartered Market Technician, I employ a disciplined, multi-stage technical strategy to systematically reduce equity exposure during early warning signs of market downturns while progressively re-entering on confirmed bullish reversals to capture recoveries and optimize long-term portfolio performance. It’s one of the things that makes us different from other financial firms.

Cyber Security Awareness & the Crypto Con

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October is Cyber Security Awareness Month, and we can’t overemphasize the importance of consistently taking action to reduce risks when online or using your phone.

Released in April, the FBI’s 2024 Internet Crime Report, compiled by the Internet Crime Complaint Center, logged 859,532 complaints of suspected internet crime, with reported losses exceeding $16 billion—a 33% increase from 2023.

In reality, many don’t report, and losses are likely much higher. 

The top three cybercrimes by number of complaints reported by victims in 2024 were phishing/spoofing, extortion, and personal data breaches.

Individuals over 60 suffered the highest financial losses, totaling nearly $5 billion—almost double the $2.5 billion reported by those aged 50 to 59. They also filed the most complaints overall, highlighting their disproportionate vulnerability.

Victims of investment fraud, specifically those involving cryptocurrency, reported the most losses, totaling over $6.5 billion.

Digital Assets

Confused about cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum? You’re not alone. People use cryptocurrency for many reasons, such as quick payments, avoidance of bank transaction fees, or simply because it offers some anonymity. Many hold cryptocurrency as an investment, hoping the value rises. 

Unfortunately, cryptocurrencies are frequently used for nefarious purposes due to their disguised identities, borderless transferability, and lack of central oversight, enabling activities such as ransomware extortion, money laundering, darknet marketplaces, terrorist financing, and cybercrimes.

Paying with cryptocurrency does not come with legal protections that users of credit cards enjoy. Payments aren’t reversible unless the recipient refunds a payment to the sender, and some information about your transaction will be public because it is recorded on a public ledger called a blockchain.

Steer Clear of the Crypto Con

• Only scammers demand payment in cryptocurrency. No legitimate business is going to demand you send cryptocurrency in advance to buy something or protect your money. Avoid those who promise big profits. Those promising big returns with no risk are criminals.
  
  
• A so-called “investment manager” contacts you out of the blue. They guarantee a big profit if you buy cryptocurrency and transfer it into their online account.
  The promoted investment website looks real, but it’s fraudulent, and so are their promises. You’ll struggle to withdraw your money or be forced to pay high fees.
  
  
• You answer an ad for a job that only pays in Bitcoin. It’s all online, you work from home, and it sounds like easy cash. After receiving token payments, promised payouts never seem to be deposited into your account. But scammers keep asking you to deposit crypto to maintain your job, claiming big payouts are forthcoming.

Brenda Smith knows the experience all too well. Her story, recently featured in Business Insider, follows a strikingly similar pattern. At 56, Ms. Smith, who holds a master’s degree and works in higher education, discovered what turned out to be a job scam she discovered on LinkedIn. The scheme required upfront cryptocurrency payments—a huge red flag—that she only recognized after she lost about $15,000.

Have you ever received an unsolicited text message from an unfamiliar phone number? The scammer will ask a simple question, hoping you’ll respond, even if it’s to inform them that they misdialed. They will apologize, then try to engage you in a conversation. As they gain your trust, they will share how you can accumulate riches, often through cryptocurrencies.

Send them money and you’ll never see it again.

Growing interest in crypto has led to an explosion of scams and fraudulent activity. Activities the Federal Trade Commission warns against include:

Instead, ignore the text and block the number.

Tips from the FBI – Don’t Become a Victim

• Be careful what you post because scammers can use that information against you. Only use dating websites with national reputations but assume that con artists are trolling even the most reputable sites.
  
  
• Go slow and ask questions, and research the individual’s pictures and profile using other online search tools to ensure someone else’s profile was not used or to see if that same pitch is being used on multiple victims at once.
  
  
• Warning Signs:
  • The individual sends you a photo that looks like it’s out of a magazine, professes friendship quickly, or tries to isolate you from family and friends.
    
    
  • The individual claims to be working and living across the country or overseas and makes plans to visit but always cancels because of some emergency.
    
    
  • They are in no hurry. Why? They are getting to know you. You are in their pipeline. They have been “working” other individuals for quite some time.

If you are corresponding with someone online whom you have never met, and they ask you for money for some contrived situation, listen to the voice in your head: “Something’s not right. Are they trying to scam me?” The short answer is yes.

Be smart. Be careful. Arm yourself with knowledge. When your emotions are involved, it’s easy to let your guard down.

If you have questions, we're here to provide additional information. We deeply value our relationship with you, and we want to arm you with the tools that can protect you from scams and fraudulent activity.

Through faith-based guidance, we help your review and refine your strategies, ensuring preparation for your children’s education will build lasting legacies, honor God, and secure financial peace for future generations.

We’re committed to helping you experience financial contentment and peace through a plan that’s right for you, and by aligning your investment with your Christian values. It’s about understanding how you want to live and what you want to do. Whether you want to spend time with family or volunteer to make the world a better place, we help you prepare to spend your time, talents, and resources on what matters most to you.

Implementing faith-based investing begins just like any other investment 
management process – we’re looking for great investments!

I hope you’ve found this review to be educational and helpful. Our goal is to be a guide to you as you run the race and keep the faith. 

"For the Lord gives wisdom; from his mouth come knowledge and understanding." Prov 2:6

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