Market Commentary

Aggressive tariff policies triggered significant market volatility amid a sharp early April selloff, which was followed by a sharp rebound when the most severe tariffs were delayed.

Stocks began the month on a steep downward trajectory, experiencing losses reminiscent of the early pandemic lockdowns. However, by the end of the month, shares had managed to erase most of the early losses.

Last week was one of the most volatile I’ve seen in 18 years as a professional investment manager. As of today, major indices have experienced significant declines: the S&P 500 is down 13.9% year-to-date, the Nasdaq has fallen 19.2%, the Russell 2000 is off 18.8%.

Following the election, optimism surged amid the belief that the new president would follow through with plans to pare back regulations that stifle businesses and extend the tax cuts passed in 2017.

One year ago, we commented, “Rate cuts that occur because the Fed ‘can,’ not because they ‘must,’ is the preferred path” for investors. It’s not that we have special insights when peering into the future. We have yet to find anyone who can consistently and accurately forecast peaks and valleys in the stock market.

2024 was a year of unexpectedly strong market performance. Major stock market indices generated historic gains with the S&P 500 returning 25.0% with dividends, the Nasdaq 29.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 15.0%.